Grade point average at age 16 may predict who is at risk of dying as a young adult
Research findings
|Published
Each year, around 400 young adults between the age of 17 and 32 die in Norway. Young adults with poor school performance have a significantly higher risk of dying young compared to peers with average or good grades.
The leading causes of death among young adults are often related to risky behaviors, suicide, and substance abuse. Identifying which young people are at a higher risk could play a key role in understanding and preventing deaths in early adulthood.
It is well-established that these deaths occur more frequently among those from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds (low SES). However, a new study from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health sought to explore how parents' socioeconomic status—measured by income and education—compares to their children’s academic performance as a predictor of early death.
Poor academic performance, risk behaviors and self-regulation
Researchers compared the 25% with the lowest grades to the other students in their middle school class.
The results show that within different levels of academic performance, socioeconomic status has almost no explanatory power for the risk of early death. However, the risk was significantly higher among young adults with poor academic performance within different levels of socioeconomic status.
“This is interesting for two reasons. First, the study shows that academic performance is likely a better indicator than socioeconomic background for identifying who is at a higher risk of dying at an early age. It also provides insight into which factors drive the social inequality in risk of early death,” said Bjørn-Atle Reme, one of the researchers behind the study.
This will make it easier to target potential interventions.
“This is an important finding which suggests preventive measures can be targeted at those with poor grades, regardless of family background,” stated Reme.
A significant fraction of the deaths among those with poor grades is due to causes related to risk behavior rather than illness.
“We do not know for certain why academic performance is so important, but the study suggests that personal traits related to self-regulation may be particularly important. However, it is important to remember that early death is rare, so even among those with the poorest grades, the risk is not high,” stated Reme.
Higher Risk Among Young Men
The study found that the link between poor academic performance and early death was more pronounced in young men than in young women. For accidents, suicides, and overdoses the incidence was significantly higher among young men, about 3-4 times higher.
About the Study and Its Limitations
The study used data from four national registers that compile information about families, causes of death, school performance, parental education, and parental income. The study is based on registry data from nearly one million Norwegians born between 1986 and 2002.
The study shows a connection between school performance, family background, and the risk of early death, but cannot determine causal relationships. The study cannot definitively explain why those with poorer grades have a higher risk of early death.
